Watch and learn: Spillover effects of peace accord implementation on non-signatory armed groups

Abstract

Theories of observational learning and the effects of reputation formation on future conflict interactions have been applied much more steadily to interstate conflict than to civil conflict. Yet, many nations have multiple civil wars with multiple warring dyads, offering groups ample opportunities to watch and learn from prior interactions between other rebel groups and the government. When a government keeps the promises it made to the signatories in a previous negotiated agreement, we argue that the risk of subsequent challenges from other non-signatory groups declines as these groups update their beliefs about that government and the efficacy of violent versus non-violent mobilization. In our analysis of the implementation of comprehensive peace accords since 1989, we found that governments that kept their implementation commitments to the signatory group(s) in a negotiated settlement experienced fewer armed challenges from other armed groups in the future.