Abstract
Despite electricity generated from landfill gas (LFG) being widely studied, information about the effect over time of dynamic changes in the waste composition caused by diversions of municipal solid waste (MSW) remains scarce. Thus, this paper evaluates the impact of policy targets for diversion of MSW on energy production from LFG recovery. A system dynamics (SD) model is proposed based on the LandGem model to quantify the LFG generation. The results show that dry recyclable materials diversion is a favourable measure that increases LFG generation, while organic waste diversion measures have the opposite effect, which directly affects energy generation. Diverting 5–20% of organic waste would still allow 10% higher electricity generation coming from LFG recovery than most landfills in Brazil. The cost–benefit analysis indicated the feasibility of LFG-to-energy projects under the different diversion targets and their contribution to mitigating equivalent carbon dioxide emissions. In addition to an academic contribution to waste management studies by using SD, this paper aids decision making for landfill energy generation projects concerning the impact of policies aiming to divert dry recyclable and organic waste from landfilling to recycling.
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