Wasserstein Distributionally Robust Stochastic Control: A Data-Driven Approach

Abstract

Standard stochastic control methods assume that the probability distribution of uncertain variables is available. Unfortunately, in practice, obtaining accurate distribution information is a challenging task. To resolve this issue, in this article we investigate the problem of designing a control policy that is robust against errors in the empirical distribution obtained from data. This problem can be formulated as a two-player zero-sum dynamic game problem, where the action space of the adversarial player is a Wasserstein ball centered at the empirical distribution. A dynamic programming solution is provided exploiting the reformulation techniques for Wasserstein distributionally robust optimization. We show that the contraction property of associated Bellman operators extends a single-stage out-of-sample performance guarantee, obtained using a measure concentration inequality, to the corresponding multistage guarantee without any degradation in the confidence level. Furthermore, we characterize an explicit form of the optimal control policy and the worst-case distribution policy for linear-quadratic problems with Wasserstein penalty.