Was Western Capitalism a Product of an Error in Reasoning? The Weber Thesis and Newcomb's Problem

Abstract

This article demonstrates how Weber's ideal typical Calvinist in choosing between the 'worldly ascetic' and the usual opportunistic way of life confronts Newcomb's problem. Weber's presentation of the Calvinist predicament exemplifies a distinct case of Newcomb's problem with an infallible predictor, but with asymmetry in the auspiciousness of agent's choices. Because of this asymmetry, Weber's presentation is free from the charge of incoherence, to which Newcomb's problem with an infallible predictor is exposed. Weber's qualification of the Calvinist's choice as 'non-logical' reveals the causalism of his preanalytic intuitions about rational choice. His view implies that one of the contributing causes in the emergence of Western capitalism was the conflation between diagnostic and causal relevance of actions. Re-consideration of the Calvinist's predicament in the framework of Robert Nozick's decision value theory provides promising framework for the elaboration of Weberian problematics of 'rationalization', of social action and 'disenchantment' of the world, and shows how the rationality of Calvinist's choice can be vindicated.