Was Drought Really the Trigger Behind the Syrian Civil War in 2011?

Arnon Karnieli,Alexandra Shtein,Noam Weisbrod,Natalya Panov,Alon Tal

doi:10.3390/w11081564

Arnon Karnieli, Alexandra Shtein + Show 3 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.3390/w11081564

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Journal: Water	Publication Date: Jul 29, 2019
Citations: 16	License type: CC BY 4.0

Affiliation: Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Tel Aviv University

Abstract

The role played by unsustainable resource management in initiating international conflicts is well documented. The Syrian Civil War, commencing in March 2011, presents such a case. The prevailing opinion links the unrest with sequential droughts occurring from 2007–2010. Our research, however, reveals that the winter-rainfed agricultural conditions before 2011, as detected by satellite-derived vegetation indices, were similar and even better for Syrian farmers than for those of their Turkish counterparts across the border. Concurrently, summer-irrigated crops, heavily dependent on Euphrates River water originating from Turkey, notably declined in Syria while flourishing in Turkey. These findings are firmly supported by other independent and validated datasets, including long-term cross-border discharge, the water level in Syrian and Turkish reservoirs, and transborder groundwater flow. We conclude that the Turkish policy of unilaterally diverting the Euphrates water was the main reason for the agricultural collapse and subsequent instability in Syria in 2011. The obvious inference is that while prolonged drought exacerbated conditions, unsustainable anthropogenic water management in Turkey was the proximate cause behind the Syrian uprising.

Highlights

Several recent publications, e.g., [1,2,3,4,5,6], and innumerable commentators, have posited that consecutive droughts and climate change were the primary causes of the 2011 unrest in Syria and the subsequent military conflict
A useful indicator of environmental change is the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) that enhances the vegetation signal and makes it possible to distinguish between vegetation states [19]
Spaceborne image processing suggests that the drop in agricultural yields and subsequent abandoning of farms that occurred in Syria in 2010 were dramatic drop in agricultural yields and subsequent abandoning of farms that occurred in Syria in driven by the decrease in available irrigation water, a result of substantial diversions in the Euphrates

Summary

Introduction

E.g., [1,2,3,4,5,6], and innumerable commentators, have posited that consecutive droughts and climate change were the primary causes of the 2011 unrest in Syria and the subsequent military conflict. According to this view, the breakdown of Syrian agriculture caused mass rural-urban migration, economic turbulence, and civil instability.

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Conclusion