Abstract
Warning and evacuation are among the most effective ways for saving human lives and properties from landslide dam hazards. A new warning decision model for landslide dam break is developed using Influence Diagrams to minimize the total losses. An Influence Diagram is a simple visual representation of a decision problem. It analyzes the qualitative (causal) relationships between the variables via a logic diagram and determines the quantitative relationships via conditional probability and Bayes’ theorem. The model is applied for the warning decision-making of the 2008 Tangjiashan landslide dam. The new model unifies the dam failure probability, evacuation, life loss, and flood damage in an Influence Diagram. Besides, a warning criterion is proposed for efficient decision-making. The model is more advanced than the decision tree since the inter-relationships of influence factors are qualitatively analyzed with causality connections and quantitatively analyzed with conditional probabilities. It is more efficient than a dynamic decision-making model (DYDEM) as it can directly calculate the three types of flood loss (i.e., evacuation cost, flood damage, and monetized life loss) and the expected total loss. Moreover, the probabilities of the influence factors leading to known results can be obtained through inversion analysis based on Bayesian theory. The new warning decision model offers an efficient way to save lives from landslide dam breaking and avoid unnecessary expenses from premature warning and evacuation.
Highlights
A landslide dam is a naturally formed dam by rapid deposition of a landslide, avalanche, or debris flow, which blocks a river to form a natural lake
A new warning decision-making model (DEMID) is presented based on Influence Diagram in this article. It is used for the emergent warning decision-making in the case of the 2008 Tangjiashan landslide dam
The following conclusions can be drawn: 1) The present decision model is of great efficiency as it unifies the dam failure probability, evacuation, and three types of flood losses in one Influence Diagram
Summary
A landslide dam is a naturally formed dam by rapid deposition of a landslide, avalanche, or debris flow, which blocks a river to form a natural lake. The expected total losses need to be calculated as the sum of the three types of expected losses (the product of the dam failure probability and the loss) This method is suitable for detailed case studies with sufficient investigated and simulated parameters. It may not be sufficient for efficient decision-making for short-lived landslide dam cases. Influence Diagram integrates dam failure probability, the population at risk, fatality rate, and the three types of flood losses within one method. The new model provides an efficient and reliable method for warning decision-making for short-lived landslide dams. Both the time-related dam failure probability and three types of losses are involved within the new model
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