Abstract
Warming-induced drought has widely affected forest dynamics in most places of the northern hemisphere. In this study, we assessed how climate warming has affected Picea crassifolia (Qinghai spruce) forests using tree growth-climate relationships and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) along the Qilian Mountains, northeastern Tibet Plateau (the main range of Picea crassifolia). Based on the analysis on trees radial growth data from the upper tree line and the regional NDVI data, we identified a pervasive growth decline in recent decades, most likely caused by warming-induced droughts. The drought stress on Picea crassifolia radial growth were expanding from northeast to southwest and the favorable moisture conditions for tree growth were retreating along the identical direction in the study area over the last half century. Compared to the historical drought stress on tree radial growth in the 1920s, recent warming-induced droughts display a longer-lasting stress with a broader spatial distribution on regional forest growth. If the recent warming continues without the effective moisture increasing, then a notable challenge is developed for Picea crassifolia in the Qilian Mountains. Elaborate forest management is necessary to counteract the future risk of climate change effects in this region.
Highlights
The rapid warming over the last half century is unequivocal, and many observed changes are unprecedented
We found that Picea crassifolia stands and coniferous forests in general were experiencing a significant drought stress
This stress was documented by remote sensing (NDVI) and in situ (BAI) data on the northeastern Tibet Plateau (TP) in recent decades
Summary
The rapid warming over the last half century is unequivocal, and many observed changes are unprecedented. More than half of the observed increase in global average temperature is caused by anthropogenic forcing [1]. This anthropogenic warming affects all ecosystems, notably those at high latitudes and in alpine regions [2,3,4]. This warming causes temperature limitations for certain plant species [5] and induces consequent droughts because of the changing hydrothermal conditions at the regional scale [6]. Regional droughts in certain areas are intensifying and will become more frequent in the future as a result of recent warming [7].
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