Abstract
Insufficient winter chill accumulation can detrimentally impact agriculture. Understanding the changing risk of insufficient chill accumulation can guide orchard management and cultivar selection for long-lived perennial crops including peaches. This study quantifies the influence of modeled anthropogenic climate change on observed chill accumulation since 1981 and projected chill accumulation through the mid-21st century, with a focus on principal peach-growing regions in the southeastern United States, and commonly grown peach cultivars with low, moderate, and high chill accumulation requirements. Anthropogenic climate change has reduced winter chill accumulation, increased the probability of winters with low chill accumulation, and increased the likelihood of winters with insufficient chill for commonly grown peach cultivars in the southeastern United States. Climate projections show a continuation of reduced chill accumulation and increased probability of winters with insufficient chill accumulation for cultivars with high chill requirements, with approximately 40% of years by mid-century having insufficient chill in Georgia. The results highlight the importance of inter-annual variability in agro-climate risk assessments and suggest that adaptive measures may be necessary in order to maintain current peach production practices in the region in the coming decades.
Highlights
The peach industry in the southeastern United States (SEUS) has been a part of the regional iconography since at least the mid-1920s, and was historically an important part of the agricultural economy [1]
The projections of daily Tmax and Tmin from 20 global climate models (GCMs) that participated in the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) were statistically downscaled using the multivariate adaptive constructed analogs (MACA) method [24]
Despite research suggesting that declines in crop suitability due to climate change may not be as severe as shown in our results [45], it is worth noting that we examined changes in chill accumulation under a conservative, moderate warming scenario
Summary
The peach industry in the southeastern United States (SEUS) has been a part of the regional iconography since at least the mid-1920s, and was historically an important part of the agricultural economy [1]. While California’s current peach production dwarfs that of Georgia and South Carolina [2], the industry in the SEUS continues to contribute millions to regional, state, and local economies [3], and peaches remain important to regional identity [1]. The warm conditions resulted in insufficient winter chill accumulation in some areas, while other parts of the SEUS were impacted when an early bloom, due to unseasonably warm temperatures, was followed by a mid-March freeze. Given the role of the peach industry in both the economy and culture of the SEUS, the 2017 crop failure garnered much public interest including whether such warm winters and impacts to perennial agriculture may become more commonplace in the coming decades
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