Abstract
Bacterial Panicle Blight (BPB), caused by Burkholderia glumae, is a bacterial disease in rice (Oryza sativa) that reduces rice yield and quality for producers and consequently creates higher market prices for consumers. BPB is caused by the simultaneous occurrence of high daily minimum temperatures (~22°C) and relative humidity (~77%), which may increase under the current scenario of global warming. This study hypothesized that the economic damage from warming may cause an increase in economic losses, though at a decreasing rate per degree. Thus, this study estimates the yield losses associated with BPB occurrences at the county level in the Mid-South United States (US) for annual rice production in 2003–2013 and under +1–3°C warming scenarios using daily weather information with appropriate thresholds. From the estimated losses, the total production potential of a BPB-resistant rice was quantified using a spatial equilibrium trade model to further estimate market welfare changes with the counterfactual scenario that all US county-level rice production were BPB resistant. Results from the study indicate that the alleviation of BPB would represent a $69 million USD increase in consumer surplus in the US and a concomitant increase in rice production that would feed an additional 1.46 million people annually assuming a global average consumption of 54 Kg per person. Under the 1°C warming scenario, BPB occurrences and production losses would cause price increases for rice and subsequently result in a $112 million USD annual decrease in consumer surplus in the US and a loss of production equivalent to feeding 2.17 million people. Under a 3°C warming scenario, production losses due to BPB cause an annual reduction of $204 million USD in consumer surplus in the US, and a loss in production sufficient to feed 3.98 million people a year. As global warming intensifies, BPB could become a more common and formidable rice disease to combat, and breeding for BPB resistance would be the primary line-of-defense as currently no effective chemical options are available. The results of this study inform agriculturalists, policymakers, and economists about the value of BPB-resistance in the international rice market and also help support efforts to focus future breeding toward climate change impact resilience.
Highlights
Rice consumption accounts for more than half of the daily caloric intake of over three billion people globally, mostly in low-income countries [1]
The results presented as costs can be interpreted as the estimated expense to balance the environmental and human health externalities, that is, to restore full quality-adjusted life years (QALY) and biodiversity-adjusted hectare years (BAHY) based on the “ability to pay” [49]
If both thresholds are met in Eq (1) for county/parish l in year t, yield penalty (δ) would be applied to each cultivar based on its Bacterial Panicle Blight (BPB) susceptibility rating (MR: 17.7%, Moderately Susceptible (MS): 21.0%, S: 25.0%, and Very Susceptible (VS): 37.4%) and each cultivar’s county/parish level yield potential
Summary
Rice consumption accounts for more than half of the daily caloric intake of over three billion people globally, mostly in low-income countries [1]. Despite substantial rice consumption worldwide, 90% of the world’s rice supply is produced in only 15 countries, primarily in Asia [2]. Abiotic events such as drought and heat stress, and biotic events such as diseases and pests, can alter the global rice supply and cause subsequent food insecurity, as well as increase the environmental impacts of agricultural land use by reducing efficiency. Previous studies have quantified the supply shocks and food security implications of rice blast, caused by the fungus Magnaporthe oryzae and rice sheath blight, caused by the fungus Rhizoctonia solani AG1-1A, in the Mid-South rice-growing region of the US [5,6], but no studies have investigated these impacts for BPB. This study quantifies the occurrences and estimates the economic and environmental impacts of BPB in US rice production under current weather regimes and for +1 ̊C, +2 ̊C, and +3 ̊C warming scenarios
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