War in Ukraine will increase Turkey’s isolation

Abstract

Significance Simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections are due by mid-2023 at the latest. Opinion polls suggest that support for Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party are in long-term decline, with the economy the main driver of falling popularity. Impacts Ankara could be hard hit by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine because of to economic ties with both countries and higher global energy prices. Turkey is exposed to Russia, its main tourism market, largest supplier of gas and wheat, and builder of its first nuclear power plant. Turkey is exposed to Ukraine, its third-largest tourism market, second-largest exporter of wheat and an increasingly important arms partner. Despite extensive media coverage of the invasion, there is no domestic pressure on Erdogan to become actively involved in the conflict. Turkey’s reluctance to be more vigorous in supplying material support to Ukraine will further distance it from its NATO allies and the EU.