Abstract
Moscow’s latest military intervention in Chechnya has been better planned and more carefully conducted than that of 1994–96. More troops are involved and morale is higher, whereas ordinary Chechens have been demoralised by the collapse of order in their country since 1996. Significantly, unlike the last war, this offensive is popular with the Russian people and media, due to Chechen attacks on Russia’s population and territory over the past two years. However, the real fighting will begin with a ground attack on Grozny, which is imminent. Heavy casualties among badly trained Russian conscript units could still blunt Russia’s appetite for further conflict.
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