War and the new world order: variants of expected scenarios in the context of the complexity paradigm

Abstract

The situation in the world after the start of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine can be characterized as an ever-increasing chaos, undermining the foundations of the global order that existed in the world before the start of this war. The theme of the inevitable change of the world order becomes one of the main ones in the world narrative space, actualizing the question — what can the new global order be? The paradigm of complexity as a methodological basis for the construction of the latest sociological concepts allows us to propose conceptual schemes and models of social changes that are able to work with the concepts of social chaos, bifurcation and social order. The basis of the proposed forecast of the expected possible scenarios of the development of events is a model of social changes built on the basis of the paradigm of complexity, which asserts the existence of two mechanisms for creating and maintaining social order — organizational and self-organizing. The organizational mechanism is based on human subjectivity, rational thinking, intelligence, classical scientific forecasting models, logic and evidence. Culturally legitimized during the Modern era. Self-organization is based on mythological thinking, irrationality, belief in a suprapersonal force that is the subject of order creation (God, gods, hero, charismatic leader, higher idea, etc.). The culture of Tradition was based on this. According to the chosen approach, it can be argued that the next arrangement can be predicted only in the form of several equally probable options for global social change. It is assumed that these options will be formed from different variations of the combination of organization and self-organization. There are three of them: 1). Hypermodernity, significant strengthening of organizational mechanisms, further marginalization of self-organization. 2). Neo-tradition (integral Tradition), dominance of self-organization, decline of organizational levers of regulation. 3). Tradomodern, a balanced dialectical unity of self-organization and organization. The points of possible growth of each of the options are indicated, which are currently in the margins of the world socio-cultural space, but at bifurcation points, the new always grows from the marginal. The unique example of the self-organization of the Ukrainian Maidans, volunteer and voluntary movement, which is an experience of combining organization and self-organization, reason and faith, which brings new meanings to the European semantic space, is emphasized. It was emphasized that there is no way to predict which option will be implemented. A small random event can decide everything, but knowing such patterns does not exclude the possibility of at least preparing for all the mentioned possibilities, and maybe working for one of them.