Waldertrag und Anbaurisiko in einer unsicheren Klimazukunft

Abstract

Forest productivity and cultivation risk in an uncertain climate future Changes in climate conditions will lead to strong yet uncertain changes concerning forest growth and cultivation risk. Economic success as an important criterion for management decisions depends on both aspects, natural yield and risk. This study presents a new concept how (potential) yield and risk can be estimated from large-scale inventory data. As a result, any stand can be plotted in a yield-risk coordinate system and its future yield expectancy can be described by a trajectory in the yield-risk space. This strictly analytical approach cannot take over silvicultural decisions, but facilitates them from an objective basis. The implementation of approved economic guidelines such as the caution principle or the principle of flexibility builds upon the yield-risk approach and demonstrates benefits of climate-adapted stable mixed forest silviculture.