Waiting to Know the Future: A SLEUTH Model Forecast of Urban Growth with Real Data

Abstract

What is the true value of simulation modelling to urban growth? This article assesses the validity of an integrated approach, based on the SLEUTH Model and land-use planning theory, as used to create an eight-year forecast in 1998. With actual data on the extent of urbanization in 2006 now available, the authors find that the 1998 forecasts were accurate. The case study is located in Macomer, an inland municipality of Sardinia, Italy, an island in the central Mediterranean Sea. Noting that data collection is an essential first step of planning, the authors assess Macomer's land-use history, geography, economy, and demographics as context for more integrated and holistic planning than has been undertaken in the region to date. The 1998 calibration and prediction of the Urban Growth Model, a component of SLEUTH, simulated Macomer's urban growth for the following eight years and has been reviewed and statistically validated. With detailed geographical results, the authors confirm that the 1998 simulation closely reflects real urban growth as of 2006. This finding is particularly notable because urban growth in Sardinia has been slow, and a higher level of accuracy in urban planning is necessary to achieve stronger predictive capability.