Waiting list mortality and 5-year transplant survival benefit of patients with MASLD: An Italian liver transplant registry study

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BackgroundInternational consensus has recently introduced a new definition of Metabolic Dysfunction-Associated Steatotic Liver Disease (MASLD). We sought to analyse epidemiological trends, prognostic features, and transplant survival benefits of MASLD and non-MASLD patients waiting for liver transplantation (LT) in Italy. Materials and methodsUtilising the Italian Liver Transplant Registry database, we analysed data from adult patients listed for primary LT due to end-stage chronic liver disease between January 2012 and December 2022. Independent multivariable waiting lists and post-transplant survival models were developed for patients with and without hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A Monte Carlo simulation was employed to create 5-year transplant benefit distributions based on the presence of MASLD, HCC, and MELD-sodium values. ResultsA total sample of 1,941 MASLD and 11,201 non-MASLD was considered. A significant increase in the prevalence of MASLD as an indication for liver transplantation was observed from 2012 to 2022, both for HCC (from 17.7 to 30%) and non-HCC (from 9.5 to 11.8%) cohorts. Projections suggest that, as early as next year, MASLD will overcome HCV as the second most common indication for transplantation after alcoholic liver disease in Italy. According to univariate and multivariate analyses, MASLD was not an independent predictive factor for patient survival after transplantation. However, it increased the risk of death for patients on the waiting list without HCC (hazard ratio 1.62, p <0.001). At the same MELD-sodium, the 5-year transplant benefit was higher in patients with non-HCC MASLD, followed by patients with HCC, while it was lower in non-HCC patients without MASLD. ConclusionsNon-HCC MASLD patients had an increased waitlist mortality and 5-year transplant survival benefit compared to other candidates.