Wagner PMC’s Impact on Russia’s Public Image in Africa

Abstract

Much has been made of Wagner Private Military Company’s (PMC) activities in Africa, and many have warned of Russia’s growing influence on the continent and the implications that this has for the West. But little work has been done to examine how African publics have reacted to these activities, even though one of the purposes of Wagner’s activities in Africa is to influence African public opinion. Have Wagner’s activities in Africa led to winning the battle for the “hearts and minds” of African publics on the continent, which appears to be, at least in part, the goal of such activities? Have they affected how Africans view Russia? Using data from a new report documenting Wagner political, military, and economic activities, coupled with recent Afrobarometer data from Wave 8 (2019–2021), I examine whether Wagner activities correlate with views on Russia. I find that rather than increasing positive evaluations of Russia, the presence of Wagner military activities is associated with a significant decrease in evaluations of Russia in the countries where Wagner is deployed. This suggests that Wagner activities may not be helping to improve Russia’s appeal in Africa.