Vyhodnocení vztahu investic a úspor v zemích střední Evropy

Abstract

The paper is aimed at the evaluation of a relationship between the rate of investments and the rate of savings in selected Central European countries. A reference period for the analysis is 1995–2009. In all analysed Central European countries, the rate of investments permanently exceeded (but exceptions) the rate of savings in the period under investigation. Through fitting the development series of a calculated indicator as a difference of the rate of investments and the rate of savings in monitored countries by a polynomial of the second degree it was possible to compare developmental trends of this indicator in particular countries involved in this analysis. Polynomial trends of the difference indicator of the rate of investments and the rate of savings in Central European countries in the monitored period indicate similar developmental tendencies characterized (at the beginning of the reference period) by increasing the imbalance of the rate of investments and the rate of savings (on average until about 2003) and then by follow-up tendencies towards the gradual return to the balance. For the purpose of comparison, a difference was also monitored between the rate of investments and the rate of savings in EU15 countries as a whole, which permanently fluctuated around zero. The mean value of this indicator amounted to 0.11% for the period 1995–2009. Thus, in EU15 countries, the rate of investments roughly corresponded to the rate of savings (on a long-term basis). Based on this analysis, it follows that there is a correlation between the rate of investments and the rate of savings. Calculated parameters of particular regression functions are presented as Results in this paper. Indices of correlation and types of a regression function were calculated for particular countries. For the Czech Republic, these results are statistically highly significant using all three types of regression functions. In Poland, they can be indicated as statistically significant using the polynomial of the second and third degrees similarly as in Slovakia. In Hungary, already the use of a polynomial of the first degree results in statistically significant results. Using a polynomial of the third degree gives statistically highly significant results. The intertemporal analysis of investments and savings presented in this paper can be also used and developed as part of the problem of an intertemporal approach to the balance of payments.