Abstract
Globally, the impacts of climate change will uproot and displace millions of individuals, and American cities are on the frontline of these future population shifts. Our analysis of empirical documentation of migration factors as well as theoretical demographic models shows three predominate types of US cities affected by climate migration pathways: (1) vulnerable cities—those that will suffer significant losses in population and tax revenue; (2) recipient cities—those that serve as unsuspecting or unwilling “receiving communities” from sudden-onset disasters without preparation; and (3) climate destinations—cities seeking to rebrand their communities as “climate havens” that welcome displaced residents through equitable planning and preparation. Despite the evidence of such migration trends, there currently is limited guidance for governments at any scale to plan and prepare for these changes. Forced or unplanned migrations will have a profound and disproportionate impact on communities of color, the elderly, and other at-risk populations that are already experiencing the compounding effects of climate and environmental injustices. A lack of adequate preparation and resources dedicated to minimizing the impacts of planned and unplanned migration pathways could exacerbate existing economic, environmental, and social inequalities. Drawing from case studies in cities across the country that illustrate the typology outlined above, this paper presents a framework with preliminary strategies for policy makers to bridge knowledge gaps and design responses for both short- and long-term planning initiatives. In particular, we encourage the use of typological frameworks for implementing scenario planning that can help cities navigate the challenges of planning for future climate-migration to plan for more sustainable, inclusive, and equitable cities for all.
Highlights
As the US emerges from one of the hottest, most disasterfilled summers to date, the message is clear: grossly unprepared, we are entering an age of forced adaptation, and migrating out of harm’s way is a viable, but an essential adaptation strategy
The climate crisis will continue to push these numbers even higher, with increased storm surge, high tide flooding, and saltwater intrusion in coastal areas; more wildfires in the West; increased precipitation and flash floods in the Northeast; and heatwaves and drought in the Great Plains and western states (USGCRP, 2018)
More Americans die from heat exposure than any other weather-related event, and due to these migration trends, four to six times more people in the USA could be exposed to extreme heat by the latter half of the twenty-first century (Jones et al 2015)
Summary
Theories about climate migration can be translated into projected numbers by scholars using climate modeling scenarios to estimate future population flows. A significant amount of media attention has been given to the potential of legacy cities like Duluth, MN; Buffalo, NY; and Cincinnati, OH, to absorb climate migrants from less hospitable places of the country in the coming decades (Sacks & Acevedo, 2020) These cities, and other climate destinations, have the following characteristics in common: (1) More manageable climate impacts, namely, are not prone to sea level rise or wildfires and prolonged heat waves; (2) ready access to fresh water supply; (3) high vacancy rates or abundance of affordable housing; (4) post-industrial, legacy cities with high infrastructural capacity (originally designed to support several thousand more residents than currently live there) (Pierre-Louis, 2019; Dagenais, 2019; Rossi 2019); (5) an expressed desire to grow and be welcoming; and (6) history of or interest in improving adaptive capacity through sustainability or resilience efforts. Cities with favorable climate conditions in our current environmental crisis could take advantage of the opportunity to brand themselves as a “climigrant friendly city” (Dagenais, 2019) but other ingredients including an affordable housing stock, transit and resiliency plans, and investments in critical infrastructure such as sewage and drinking water are critical
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