Vulnerability Variables and Their Effect on Wildfires in Galicia (Spain). A Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

This paper studied the effect of the socio-economic variables related to social vulnerability on wildfire characteristics (ignitions, hectares burned, and ratio hectares burned/ignitions) in Galicia, Spain. The study recognized that wildfires present threats to people and communities, so actions might be taken to address vulnerabilities in ways that mitigate the negative impacts of such fires. Our final aim was to identify those variables that are relevant to the starting and spreading of wildfires that can help improve the prevention and mitigation of wildfires. Panel data collected over 15 years (2001–2015) for the municipalities of Galicia were used in this study. The results show that vulnerability-related socio-economic factors affect the number of wildfires and the extent of the destruction they cause. Indeed, the progressive abandonment of rural areas is one of the most important problems that increases the occurrence of wildfires. This abandonment is connected to population factors such as aging or low density of population, economic factors such as the decrease in income or low cadastral value, and territorial factors such as the decrease in rustic hectares and ranches. We conclude that prevention and mitigation focused on areas prone to wildfires could be enhanced by taking into account these variables.