Vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions of the global electric vehicle lithium-ion battery supply chain network

Abstract

In the rapidly expanding global electric vehicle lithium-ion battery supply chain network (EV LIB SCN), intricate intercontinental and interrelated connections render it susceptible to geopolitical disturbances. The complex supplier–buyer dynamics within this network facilitate the propagation of disruptions, complicating the identification and evaluation of the consequences of geopolitical disruptions. Existing recommendations, grounded in macro-level material flow data, offer limited guidance for EV LIB-associated enterprises in managing such disruptions. To address this gap, this study constructs a meso-level EV LIB SCN incorporating realistic supplier–buyer relationship data among relevant firms. A supply chain network vulnerability (SCNV) index has been designed to quantify the disruption impact. Furthermore, a geopolitical disruption diffusion (GDD) model has been developed to simulate the disruption propagation in two distinct scenarios, i.e., single-region blockade and inter-region blockade. This study broadens the scope of EV LIB SCN investigations from macro- to meso-level analyses, and the evaluation of both direct and indirect impacts of geopolitical disruptions enhances comprehension of geopolitical disruption risks in global supply chain networks.