Vulnerability of Water Demand and Aquatic Habitat in the Context of Climate Change and Analysis of a No-Regrets Adaptation Strategy: Study of the Yamaska River Basin, Canada

Abstract

AbstractClimate change will have a significant impact on the hydrological cycle. This paper presents the results of a pilot project for the Yamaska River in Quebec. The objective of this project is to evaluate the river’s vulnerability to low flows attributable to climate change and to analyze a no-regrets adaptation strategy at locations identified as vulnerable. The vulnerability was evaluated using statistical indicators (low flow indices) based on long-term observations at four locations in the basin. A distributed physically-based hydrological model in use in Quebec was calibrated and validated against observed streamflow data to properly represent low flows. Hydrological simulations used seven climate projections provided by the north american regional climate change assessment program (NARCCAP) s project. Also, five members of the canadian regional climate model (CRCM), nested with the coupled global climate model (CGCM) under the special report on emission scenarios (SRES) A2 emission scenario, we...