Vulnerability of global forest ecoregions to future climate change

Abstract

The vulnerability of global forest ecoregions to future climate change represents a major threat to biodiversity and ecosystems worldwide. Therefore, it is important to investigate this vulnerability to improve the global conservation management network for biodiversity and ecosystems. We used species–area relationship coupled with correlative distribution modelling to conduct a global vulnerability assessment on 387 forest ecoregions under future climate change across different (1) biomes, (2) biogeographical realms and (3) conservation statuses. We found that 8.8% of global forest ecoregions were highly vulnerable in a low-greenhouse-gas-concentration scenario, and 32.6% of the global forest ecoregions were highly vulnerable in the high-greenhouse-gas-concentration scenario. Furthermore, the overall vulnerability of forest ecoregions was significantly greater for the high-rather than the low-greenhouse-gas-concentration scenario. In particular, critical or endangered forest ecoregions of Temperate Broadleaf and Mixed Forests, Temperate Conifer Forests, Tropical and Subtropical Dry Broadleaf Forests and Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forests were highly vulnerable in Nearctic, Neotropic and Palearctic realms. Furthermore, relatively stable and intact Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forests may be threatened in Neotropic and Afrotropic realms due to their climate change vulnerability. Hence, due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, future climate change must be incorporated into forest ecoregion conservation management to improve the effectiveness of global conservation network systems for biodiversity and ecosystems.