Abstract
Continuous increases in global mean sea level is affecting coastal communities worldwide. In Thailand, the rising sea level exacerbates the vulnerability of coastal communities to changes in geographic conditions seriously affecting communities with low adaptive capacity and mostly dependent on natural resources. This paper identifies the potential vulnerability of coastal fishing communities which are prone to severe sea-level rises, like in the case of Laemsing District in Chanthaburi Province, Thailand. Climate simulation, Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing techniques were applied to quantify potential sea-level change (exposure), inundated areas and affected households (sensitivity). Adaptive capacity was analyzed in terms of social, human, institutional, economic, and natural conditions. Based on A1F1 (the worst case of future greenhouse gas emissions) and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies model EH (GISS-EH) best estimate for 2050, relative sea-level increase from 2000 would be 0.50 m, resulting in a loss of about 87.77 km2 of land and inundation of 2060 households. Opinions on alleviating vulnerability suggested that each condition of vulnerability is associated with two stages of development, urgent and medium. Laemsing District can face the serious effects of seawater inundation in the future. The results of this paper could be appropriately used as a reference for mainstreaming climate change adaptation into development policies and raising the awareness of stakeholders on how to cope with sea-level change and its impacts.
Highlights
Climate change has resulted in increasing land and sea surface temperatures, widespread reduction of snow and ice, and sea-level rises [1], creating adverse impacts on the coastal systems [2] all over the globe in the recent decades which are risky in the future, especially in the tropical zone and the Arctic [3]
Ref. [28] suggested that activities, plans, efforts, and the like, which are beneficial to communities in terms of ability to reduce current and future vulnerability to climate change, are indicators that show the institutional aspect of adaptive capacity
The vulnerability concept of IPCC and [24] was adopted in this paper while climate simulation and Geographic Information System (GIS) and remote sensing-relevant tools were applied to identify potential livelihood vulnerability of coastal fishing communities in four sub-districts of Laemsing District. Since this District is exposed to sea-level change and its associated consequences, especially seawater inundation, the potential inundated areas were considered as sensitive to sea-level change as well as the affected households
Summary
Climate change has resulted in increasing land and sea surface temperatures, widespread reduction of snow and ice, and sea-level rises [1], creating adverse impacts on the coastal systems [2] all over the globe in the recent decades which are risky in the future, especially in the tropical zone and the Arctic [3]. Residents in Laemsing District who get involved with some forms of coastal fishing activities are among the poorest of the country [18] This condition can aggravate the vulnerability of this District to sea-level rise that would have severe impacts on coastal fishing communities in the future. Vulnerability assessment of such communities—at local levels—has become imperative [9,19,20] to compile plausible information related to the nexus of future climate change and its impacts on livelihoods of people and to come up with adaptation responses. This paper is intended to focus on the impacts of sea-level change and elucidate the vulnerability situation on the social-environmental systems in Laemsing District, Thailand through three objectives: (1) projection of potential sea-level change; (2) identification of physical and population effects attributed to the threats of seawater inundation; and (3) assessment of differential levels of livelihood vulnerability of coastal fishing communities
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