Vulnerability of ecosystems of the mid-Atlantic region, USA, to climate change

Abstract

Changes in the distribution of vegetation in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States were explored for two climate-change scenarios. The equilibrium vegetation ecology (EVE) model was used to project the distribution of life forms and to combine these into hiomes for a doubled-CO 2 scenario generated by the GENESIS earth system model. The species model, a climate-envelope model, was used to project the distribution of 200 woody plant species for a climate-change scenario with mean 2°C warming, enhanced winter warming, and no net evapotranspiration. Results from EVE suggest a considerable northward shift of both northern and southern boundaries of the biomes that occur in the mid-Atlantic region. The species model, using the climate scenario with no net evapotranspiration, more closely examines the isolated effect of temperature. This model predicts that most species will persist in their present location, with considerable expansion northward and with a small fraction of the species throughout the region experiencing dieback. Present-day ranges of several vertebrate species, considered with anticipated climatic changes, suggest that animal range changes will also occur.