Vulnerability of crop production to climatic variability in a water stress area of north-west region of Bangladesh: a case study in the Sapahar Upazila under Naogaon District

Abstract

Agricultural production in north-west part of Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to climate variability. Thus the present study has been conducted in Sapahar Upazila of Naogaon District, Bangladesh to explore the impact of climatic variations on crop yields using the climate data analysis and farm surveys. The local knowledge and resource based adaptation techniques adopted by the farmers has been also evaluated. To explore the vulnerability, the trend analysis of temperature, rainfall and relative humidity of the study area and its relation with the crop production has been examined. Then these statistical data has been compare with the farmer's views. Farmer's perception has been also assessed through semi-structured questionnaire by using purposive sampling technique. The study result shows that, the temperature and relative humidity of the region are increasing whereas the rainfall is decreasing in a sharp rate. The lower and irregular rainfall has increased the pressure on the ground water based supplementary irrigation which is one the main reasons for the depletion of ground water level gradually as the production is strongly correlated with the ground water level and irrigation development. In multiple regression analysis with crop yield and climatic and water resources variables, it is revealed that, 92, 42, 90, and 82% of the variance in aman, aus, boro and wheat respectively, can be explained by the present study. Majority of the farmer's said that climatic variation has hampered the production which responsible for the more requirement of the agriculture input. Local farmers responded that different climatic variation including temperature increase, monsoonal change, erratic rainfall, lower rainfall in the winter, prolonged dry spell etc which are also observed in the trend analysis of the climatic factors. Farmers also identified different consequences due to the climatic variation including lower production, delay of transplantation, required extensive irrigation, higher pest and viral attack etc. which ultimately reduce economic return. Local farmer's have adopted different coping mechanism to minimize the impact of climatic variation on crop production including change of transplantation time, cropping pattern change, digging small pond besides the land, selection of short duration species etc. The study concluded that the impact of climatic variations on crop yields in the study area is substantial especially under water scarcity conditions. The need to enhance farmer's adaptive strategies must be emphasized. Keywords: adaptation, climatic variability, farmer's perception, vulnerability, water stress.