Vulnerability of communities' livelihoods to the impacts of climate change in north-western highlands of Tanzania

Abstract

Climate change has emerged as one of the critical challenges to human well-being. Changing climate places direct and indirect impacts on human activities and is mainly triggered by non-climatic stressors, which are diverse and inherent in many communities. However, there has been diversity in how climate and non-climatic stress factors affect human well-being and thus requiring locally specific contextualisation of how climate change is driving change in many ecosystems. This study analysed climate and non-climate factors for communities' vulnerability and impacts using a landscape approach in selected villages in the western highlands of Tanzania, specifically in Kasulu and Buhigwe districts in Kigoma Region. The aim was to understand communities' vulnerability to the impacts of climate, and non-climate processes, particularly with regard to livelihoods and impacts, particularly in forest resources. Study sites and respondents were selected through simple random and purposive sampling methods. Data were collected through household surveys, key informants interviews, and focus group discussions. Meteorological data were used for the analysis of climatic changes. Quantitative data analysis tools included meteorological statistics software such as CLIDATA, INSTAT, XLSTAT and SPSS. Theme-content analysis was used to analyse qualitative data. Findings indicate inter-annual and seasonal variabilities of rainfall and temperature levels from the normal across the study sites. The study revealed significant increasing trends for mean annual Maximum and Minimum temperature. Significant changes in rainfall patterns were decreasing seasonal and annual rainfall trends, unreliable onset and cessation, and erratic seasonal rainfall. The maximum decline of seasonal rainfall had slope values of −14.51, while the maximum decline of annual rainfall trends had a slope value of −12.76. The minimum decline for seasonal rainfall had slope values of −2.17, and annual rainfall trends had slope values of −1.36. Villages in the highland zone were found to be highly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and non-climate stress factors, with a 0.61 vulnerability index value. Major climate stress factors for communities' vulnerability included seasonal variability of rainfall and temperature increase, which influenced the increase of pests and diseases and other unfavourable climatic conditions that affect crop production and livestock keeping. The effects, directly and indirectly, influenced the low agricultural yields and decreased income. Non-climate stress factors such as landscape characteristics, mobility, inadequate extension services, and low household asset endowment might have been accelerating communities' vulnerability to the effects of the changing climate. Moreover, the study shows the climate change on a community's resilience. Generally, changes in climate conditions result in many adverse consequences and have been influencing communities' vulnerability.