Vulnerability Index to COVID-19 for Brazilian States

Abstract

This present article brings a vulnerability index to COVID-19 for Brazilian states. The COVID-19 pandemic is the largest since the great flu of 1918, and Brazil, which already has major supply limitations in health provision, is experiencing additional stress on the health system caused by the excess demand caused by the pandemic. Thus, this index is composed of a weighted average of state indicators, which are human development index (HDI), net current revenue per capita, health expenditure per capita, percentage of households with more than six residents, percentage of elderly population, access to basic sanitation, total population, the number of ICUs and the number of doctors and respirators per hundred thousand inhabitants. The results indicate that the states best placed in the vulnerability ranking are the Federal District and São Paulo, while the states with the worst ranking are Alagoas and Amapá. In the medium term, there is an association between the number of accumulated cases and the hospital vulnerability index. The same association exists, although at a lower level, between the hospital vulnerability index and the number of deaths per capita.