Vulnerability, hazards and multiple risk assessment for Georgia

Abstract

The paper presents a framework for the nation-wide assessment of natural hazards, vulnerability and risk for the Republic of Georgia. Firstly, a relational database was created in order to collect all necessary information available. Secondly, hazard maps were drawn based on an innovative approach of assessing the magnitude and frequency of meteorological hazard types, where the corresponding formalization was not yet satisfying. Thirdly, the associated economic losses were evaluated and presented in monetary terms for some hazard types (droughts, hurricanes, hail, frost, flash floods and earthquakes), while for other types of hazards, the information remained descriptive. Fourthly, based on the hazard inventory, an approach was developed that allowed for the calculation of an overall vulnerability value for each individual hazard type, using the Gross Domestic Product per unit area (applied to population) as the indicator for elements at risk exposed. The correlation between estimated economic losses, physical exposure and the magnitude for each of the six types of hazards has been investigated in detail by using multiple linear regression analysis. Economic losses for all past events were estimated, and historical vulnerability was estimated. Finally, the spatial distribution of general vulnerability was assessed, and the expected maximum economic loss was calculated as well as a multi-risk map was set-up. The presented method will contribute to a reduction of disaster losses in Georgia and will foster future efforts of harmonization of risk management strategies in the country.