Abstract

ABSTRACT Natural gas pipeline leak may lead to explosion accidents, which may threaten the safety of the adjacent buildings. This paper conducts a vulnerability assessment of buildings adjacent to natural gas pipeline under explosion, which is implemented by Copula Bayesian network (CBN) model. The incident escalations and evolution nodes were identified based on the accident reports. The correlation between nodes is calculated using the Kendall correlation coefficient to develop a CBN model of natural gas pipeline accidents. The weaknesses in the buildings adjacent to pipelines are identified using spider diagrams. The vulnerability of building adjacent to pipelines is characterized by the damage degree. The model is verified by a case study. The results indicate that the occurrence probability of the explosion accident reaches 85%. The identified weaknesses are ignition sources and confined spaces. The occurrence probability of a delayed ignition within buildings is 0.23, and the explosion overpressure is estimated to be 84.25 kPa. The vulnerability degree of building 1 is higher than building 2. These findings can help to understand the system weaknesses and support the safety improvement of buildings in the case of natural gas pipeline explosion.

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