Abstract
Chemical clusters are attributed with large inventories of hazardous materials whose release could result in catastrophic events, as observed in the Tianjin Port accident. Such events are typically high-impact low-probability (HILP) accidents since multiple robust safety barriers can significantly ensure the integrity of installations. However, the consequences are extremely serious if the safety barriers broke down due to disaster factors. The current risk assessment methods cannot capture the complex multi-hazard scenarios and the interaction of escalation factors causing domino effects. To overcome such gaps, the present study proposes a quantitative vulnerability assessment method for multi-hazard scenarios triggered by natural events. The vulnerability assessment method considers the exposure of hazards, the sensitivity of causes, and the resilience of asset in modelling the primary event and the possible domino accidents. The proposed method assists in analyzing the risk of domino effects triggered by natural disasters and optimizing the deployment of safety barriers in chemical clusters. The application of the method is demonstrated through a detailed case study.
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