Vulnerability assessment and impact factor analysis of marine economic system based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model

Abstract

It is crucial to examine the vulnerability of the marine economy and analyze the main influencing factors to promote the sustainable development of marine economy. In this rearch, a vulnerability assessment index system of marine economic system was constructed from four aspects: stress, sensitivity, elasticity and response ability. Combined with the coefficient of variation method, 40 assessment indexes in the index system were objectively selected and reduced. Based on the assessment set obtained from the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model, the weighted average method and weighted linear sum method were used to measure the vulnerability level type and evolution characteristics of the marine economic system. The key influencing factors were analyzed using a principal component analysis. We found that the vulnerability of Jiangsu's marine economic system in 2007–2016 was moderate and low, and it was significantly improved during 2012–2015, especially in 2015, it was mild vulnerable and below. The GDP of coastal areas, fixed asset investment of the whole society, value added of marine and related industries, coastal wind power generation capacity, per capita consumption expenditure of urban residents and list all were the key factors affecting the vulnerability of the marine economy. We analyzed the characteristics and influencing factors of vulnerability change and put forward targeted suggestions.