Vulnerability analysis of Nigeria's agricultural output growth and climate change

Abstract

PurposeAside from oil, the Nigerian economy is largely agrarian, which is rain-fed. Hence the criticality of understanding climate change and its impact on agricultural output is more pressing than ever. This is in line with Sustainable Development Goal 13 which is to take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts. Regardless, Nigeria has in the past five decades experienced a significant increase in temperature, in the range of 10 to over 30 degree Celsius. Therefore, managing the effect of climate change on agricultural output now has the colouration of a developmental challenge.Design/methodology/approachIn light of this, this study gives due consideration to the impact of climate change on agricultural output between the years 1986 and 2015. For the purpose of analysis, descriptive statistics, unit root test and the ordinary least square (OLS) estimation technique were employed.FindingsFindings from the study reveal that the average annual rainfall, temperature and forest area positively influence agricultural output, whereas drought, floods and agricultural nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions have negative impact on agricultural output. The study suggests the need for a regulatory framework and also an explicit national agricultural policy essential to offset the negative effects of climate change especially on agricultural output.Originality/valueAs Nigeria look to diversify her economy which relied on oil, agriculture is among the alternative sector hoping to drive her economic growth, therefore, it is pertinent to examine the current output in the sector given the effects of climate change.