Abstract
Russia’s agricultural sector has experienced a significant rebound in production since 2000, becoming the leading wheat exporter in the world in six of the past agricultural years. Not only has Russia’s role in the international food trade system become more important, as the world’s population continues to increase Russia grain will become even more significant, especially to politically volatile regions where food riots have contributed to pressures for regime change. While analysts are cognizant of the effects of climate change and impacts on Russian agricultural production, little thought has been given to the pathways for a transition from industrial agriculture. The article identifies four vulnerabilities to the agricultural sector from climate change in the world and in Russia. The article discusses the dislocations that may occur during a transition from industrial agriculture. The final section considers alternative models for moving away from industrial agriculture, concluding that the market-driven approach in which private industry leads the transition by “going green” is the most politically viable in Russia.
Highlights
During the past three decades there has been a tremendous increase in the awareness of the impact and consequences of climate change on social, economic, and political systems
While analysts are cognizant of the effects of climate change and impacts on Russian agricultural production, little thought has been given to the pathways for a transition from industrial agriculture
The point is that jobs and economic growth are linked to the industrial agricultural system, and either a collapse of industrial agriculture due to climate change or a transition away from industrial agriculture is likely to bring employment dislocation to many people
Summary
During the past three decades there has been a tremendous increase in the awareness of the impact and consequences of climate change on social, economic, and political systems. Climate change has the potential to fundamentally reorder regional power hierarchies (Aspinall, 2011) It can restructure the global power balance as some nations will benefit and others will decline. Climate change is and will continue to impact infrastructure, finance, and economic security (Hill and Martinez-Diaz, 2020). The population of Sub-Sahara Africa is expected to double by 2050 (United Nations, 2019) Other regions such as the Middle East, Southwest Asia, and several countries in Southeast Asia will experience high population growth to mid-century. These regions will need more food and are likely to increase demand for food imports
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