Abstract
The electricity sector is currently considered mainly on the emission side of the climate change equation. In order to limit climate warming to below 2 °C, or even 1.5 °C, it must undergo a rapid transition towards carbon neutral production by the mid-century. Simultaneously, electricity generating technologies will be vulnerable to climate change. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on wind, solar photovoltaic, hydro and thermoelectric power generation in Europe using a consistent modelling approach across the different technologies. We compare the impacts for different global warming scenarios: +1.5 °C, +2 °C and +3 °C. Results show that climate change has negative impacts on electricity production in most countries and for most technologies. Such impacts remain limited for a 1.5 °C warming, and roughly double for a 3 °C warming. Impacts are relatively limited for solar photovoltaic and wind power potential which may reduce up to 10%, while hydropower and thermoelectric generation may decrease by up to 20%. Generally, impacts are more severe in southern Europe than in northern Europe, inducing inequity between EU countries. We show that a higher share of renewables could reduce the vulnerability of power generation to climate change, although the variability of wind and solar PV production remains a significant challenge.
Highlights
The electricity sector is a major contributor to global warming, responsible for 25% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (IPCC WGIII 2014), but it will be impacted by changes in climate through their effects on supply and demand
The potential for cooling water uses will become more critical due to river flow reductions combined with water temperature increases, which will affect the usable capacity of thermoelectric power plants
We focused on understanding the impacts of climate change for given levels of warming using a limited number of climate model simulations, inducing some uncertainty
Summary
Vulnerabilities and resilience of European power generation to 1.5 ◦C, 2 ◦C and 3 ◦C warming. I Tobin, W Greuell, S Jerez, F Ludwig, R Vautard1,4 , M T H van Vliet and F-M Breon
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