Vulcanian explosion cycles: Patterns and predictability

Abstract

Research Article| September 01, 2007 Vulcanian explosion cycles: Patterns and predictability S.F.L. Watt; S.F.L. Watt 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PR, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar T.A. Mather; T.A. Mather 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PR, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar D.M. Pyle D.M. Pyle 1Department of Earth Sciences, University of Oxford, Parks Road, Oxford OX1 3PR, UK Search for other works by this author on: GSW Google Scholar Geology (2007) 35 (9): 839–842. https://doi.org/10.1130/G23562A.1 Article history received: 21 Nov 2006 rev-recd: 23 Apr 2007 accepted: 03 May 2007 first online: 09 Mar 2017 Cite View This Citation Add to Citation Manager Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Search Site Citation S.F.L. Watt, T.A. Mather, D.M. Pyle; Vulcanian explosion cycles: Patterns and predictability. Geology 2007;; 35 (9): 839–842. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/G23562A.1 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Refmanager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentBy SocietyGeology Search Advanced Search Abstract Repetitive and violent Vulcanian explosion sequences are common hazards at many volcanoes. Statistical analyses of such sequences form the basis of forecasting models and reveal underlying explosive processes. However, no single statistical model describes interexplosion repose intervals in Vulcanian systems. Soufrière Hills, Montserrat, is best described by a log-logistic model, while Sakurajima, Japan, shows a transition from a log-logistic to a Weibull model as activity intensifies. Anak Krakatau, Indonesia, displays two failure modes on different time scales, both described by Weibull distributions. At the Kameni Islands, Santorini, Greece, model-fitting parameters vary between eruption cycles. Rates of magma rise and pressurization may be the most important controls in determining the statistical distribution of repose intervals in Vulcanian systems. You do not have access to this content, please speak to your institutional administrator if you feel you should have access.