Vrancea Source Influence on Local Seismic Response in Bucharest

Abstract

The mapping of the seismic ground motion in Bucharest, due to the strong Vrancea earthquakes, is carried out using a complex hybrid waveform modeling method that allows easy parametric tests. Starting from the actually available strong motion database, we can make realistic predictions for the possible ground motion. The basic information necessary for the modeling consists of: (a) The representative mechanisms for the strong subcrustal events, (b) the average regional structural model, and (c) the local structure for Bucharest. Two scenario earthquakes are considered and the source influence on the local response is analyzed in order to define generally valid ground motion parameters, to be used in the seismic hazard estimations. The source has its own (detectable) contribution on the ground motion and its effects on the local response in Bucharest are quite stable on the transversal component (T), while the radial (R) and vertical (V) components are sensitive to the scenario earthquake. Although the strongest local effects affect the T component, both observed and synthetic, a complete determination of the seismic input for the built environment requires the knowledge of all three components of motion (R, V,T). The damage observed in Bucharest for the March 4, 1977 Vrancea event, the strongest earthquake to strike the city in modern times, is in agreement with the synthetic signals and local response.