Voting on Abortion Again and Again and Again: Campaign Efforts and Effects

Abstract

Voting on Abortion Again and Again and Again:Campaign Efforts and Effects Theresa Reidy (bio) On 25 May 2018 the Eighth Amendment of Bunreacht na hÉireann, the Irish Constitution, was repealed in a referendum vote, and abortion provision in Ireland was significantly liberalized as a result. Repeal had been expected. The Yes side led opinion polls during the campaign, and polls over many years indicated that attitudes to abortion had been transformed from the conservative views that dominated in the 1980s. But the size of the Yes victory and the large turnout among voters were a surprise to many. Abortion policy has assailed Irish politics for nearly four decades, and the 2018 referendum was the sixth time a question had been put to the people on aspects of abortion policy since the first referendum in 1983. By 2018 the central issues had been extensively debated over a long period, but with notable evidence of a change in tone and complexity. Early debates leading to the 1983 vote were marked by absolutist arguments and traditional belief systems on the part of the dominant anti-abortion side, and the first referendum campaign has been singled out for its "rancor and divisiveness."1 However, by the time of the fifth abortion referendum in 2002, Fiachra Kennedy could characterize the debate as comprised of a "series of moral conundrums."2 A succession of "hard cases," legal judgments, and sustained campaigns inside and outside of parliament led the [End Page 21] government to move toward a sixth referendum, and the first with a liberalizing intent. But a cautious route was taken to the sixth referendum. The government first convened a national Citizens' Assembly (a deliberative forum) to review the issue, an Oireachtas committee considered the recommendations of the Citizens' Assembly, and then a decision was taken to proceed to a further referendum vote. This article seeks to unpack the impact of the long (thirty-five-year), intermediate (two years of Citizens' Assembly and parliamentary deliberation), and the short (four-week) campaigns on voting at the referendum. The analysis will focus on three interconnected aspects of campaigns which draw from the work of Pippa Norris.3 She argues that campaigns generally have three objectives: priming, persuasion, and mobilization. Priming is agenda-setting; it refers to the efforts by campaign participants to communicate key messages to voters and to shape the terrain on which the debate will take place. Essentially, priming seeks to set the parameters for the debate, delineating what the issue is about, its most important questions, and the ideas and evidence that are most relevant. Persuasion refers to the art of influencing voters and convincing them of the merits of the arguments being put forward. Campaigners need voters to make up their mind on a question, i.e., to decide. Campaigns are always focused on undecided voters and seek to sway these to their side of the issue with selected evidence, arguments, and personal stories. Opinion reversal (changing the opinion of a voter) is a more challenging task than opinion formation.4 And finally, mobilization refers to turnout—"getting out the vote." Winning the argument is only useful if voters go to the polls and express their preferences. Campaigners will often provide assistance to voters with registering to vote, accessing polling-day information, and, especially in later stages of a campaign, promoting participation. The 2018 referendum vote is interesting because like all other referendums it had an immediate campaign period, but crucially, [End Page 22] abortion politics also featured frequently on the political agenda over the preceding thirty-five years. Therefore, the decision also had an unusually prolonged debate period. With this context in mind, this article addresses three questions: First, what factors were to the fore for voters in decision-making at the referendum (priming)? Second, when did voters arrive at their final decision on the abortion question (persuasion)? And third, what effect did the active campaign have on turnout (mobilization)? After providing an outline of the explanations of opinion formation, analysis of opinion change at referendums, and a short overview of campaign features, the article deploys its core analysis in sections three and four. In these discussions the priming...