Voting in Gubernatorial Succession Referenda: The Incumbency Cue

Abstract

This paper examines the proposition that the role played by the incumbent governor is a key factor shaping public support or opposition in constitutional referenda on the right of governors to succeed themselves in office. To the extent that the incumbent governor has played a leading role in the referendum campaign, many voters should support a succession amendment in order to keep the governor in office while many others should oppose a succession amendment in order to drive the governor out of office. If the governor's role in the referendum campaign has been less visible, appraisals of the governor should have a lesser impact on the voters. Survey data from Kentucky, North Carolina, and Mississippi are used to test this interpretation which performs quite well.