Voting differently across electoral arenas: Empirical implications from a decentralized democracy

Abstract

This article assesses the validity of several alternative hypotheses explaining dual voting across electoral arenas in a decentralized polity. Based on data from three different electoral cycles in Catalonia, I find evidence that the evaluation of the regional candidates of the two main parties has the largest, most consistent impact on vote transfers between levels of government. Results also emphasize, although to a lesser extent, the role played by retrospective voting at the regional level and the impacts that government performance and approval levels regarding national leaders have on the likelihood of casting a dual vote. Altogether, these results not only speak to the dual-voting literature, but also to broader research on the consequences of the de-alignment of the electorate in advanced industrial democracies.