Abstract
This article presents and tests an evolutionary model of congressional change that is based on the legislator following his voting history on an issue until changing circumstances force a change. Issue evolution, membership replacement, and partisan shift in control of the presidency are identified as three sources of change. House votes from 1949 to 1972 on debt ceiling, foreign aid, school construction, and civil rights are examined to assess the effects of the three sources of change. In general, there is considerable stability in congressional roll-call over time with the change that does occur tending to be gradual rather than dramatic.
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