Volcanism and aseismic slip in subduction zones

Abstract

The spatial and temporal relationship of volcanism to the occurrence of large earthquakes and convergent plate motion is examined. The number of volcanic eruptions per year in a convergent zone is found to be linearly related to the aseismic slip component of plate motion. If the aseismic slip rate is low (coupling between converging plates is strong), then the primary manifestation of tectonic activity is the occurrence of large earthquakes with only infrequent volcanic activity. If, however, the aseismic slip rate is high (coupling is weak), then there are few large earthquakes, and volcanism is the principal manifestation of tectonic activity. This model is consistent with the spatial distribution of large earthquakes and active volcanoes in the circum‐Pacific area. It is tested by examining the extent of volcanic activity in the rupture zones of the 1952–1973 sequence of earthquakes in the Japan‐Kurile Islands area. The number of volcanic eruptions along these zones during the interval between large earthquakes is used to compute the aseismic slip rates for these segments, based on the relationship developed in this study. The aseismic slip rates so computed agree with those determined from the earthquake history of the area and rates of plate motion. The agreement suggests that in the interval between large earthquakes, the aseismic plate motion is manifested in a specific number of volcanic eruptions. Therefore in areas with adequate historical data it should be possible to use the model developed in this study to monitor volcanic eruptions for long‐term prediction of large earthquakes.