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Abstract
Abstract. Traditionally, tephra transport and dispersal models have evolved decoupled (offline) from numerical weather prediction models. There is a concern that inconsistencies and shortcomings associated with this coupling strategy might lead to errors in the ash cloud forecast. Despite this concern and the significant progress in improving the accuracy of tephra dispersal models in the aftermath of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull and 2011 Cordón Caulle eruptions, to date, no operational online dispersal model is available to forecast volcanic ash. Here, we describe and evaluate NMMB-MONARCH-ASH, a new online multi-scale meteorological and transport model that attempts to pioneer the forecast of volcanic aerosols at operational level. The model forecasts volcanic ash cloud trajectories, concentration of ash at relevant flight levels, and the expected deposit thickness for both regional and global configurations. Its online coupling approach improves the current state-of-the-art tephra dispersal models, especially in situations where meteorological conditions are changing rapidly in time, two-way feedbacks are significant, or distal ash cloud dispersal simulations are required. This work presents the model application for the first phases of the 2011 Cordón Caulle and 2001 Mount Etna eruptions. The computational efficiency of NMMB-MONARCH-ASH and its application results compare favorably with other long-range tephra dispersal models, supporting its operational implementation.
Highlights
Explosive volcanic eruptions can eject large quantities of particulate matter that, along with other aerosol droplets and trace gases, are carried upwards into the atmosphere by the buoyant eruption column and are dispersed by winds aloft (e.g., Sparks et al, 1997)
In this paper we describe and evaluate NMMBMONARCH-ASH, a new online meteorological and atmospheric transport model for simulating the emission, transport, and deposition of ash particles released from volcanic eruptions
Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Model on a B grid (NMMB)-MONARCH-ASH is a novel online multi-scale meteorological and atmospheric transport model developed at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC)
Summary
Explosive volcanic eruptions can eject large quantities of particulate matter (tephra) that, along with other aerosol droplets and trace gases, are carried upwards into the atmosphere by the buoyant eruption column and are dispersed by winds aloft (e.g., Sparks et al, 1997). In addition to short-term forecast, other model applications include the reconstruction of past events, studying the impact of volcano eruptions on climate, probabilistic tephra hazard assessments, or simulation of recent eruptions for model evaluation purposes For any of those cases, TTDMs require a driving numerical weather prediction model (NWPM) or a meteorological reanalysis dataset for the description of the atmospheric conditions and an emission or source model for the characterization of the eruption column (Fig. 1). The novel online coupling in NMMB-MONARCH-ASH allows for solving of both the meteorological and aerosol transport concurrently and interactively at every time step This coupling strategy aims at improving the current state-of-the-art tephra dispersal models, especially in situations where meteorological conditions are changing rapidly in time, twoway feedbacks are significant, or distal ash cloud dispersal simulations are required. The remainder of the paper is arranged as follows: Sect. 2 summarizes the modeling background and the standard physical schemes employed in NMMB-MONARCH-ASH; Sect. 3 provides a comprehensive description of the ashrelated modules, including details about the emission, transport, and deposition of volcanic particles; Sect. 4 validates the regional and global configurations of the model for the 2001 Mount Etna and 2011 Cordón Caulle long-lasting eruptions; Sect. 5 discusses the implementation and performance of the model for its operational use; and Sect. 6 provides a summary and conclusion of this work
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