Volatility transmissions between renminbi and Asia-Pacific on-shore and off-shore U.S. dollar futures.

Abstract

This paper uses multivariate GARCH techniques to study volatility spillovers between the Chinese non-deliverable forward market and seven of its Asia-Pacific counterparts over the period January 1998 to March 2005. To account for the time-variability of conditional correlation, a dynamic correlation structure is included in the volatility model specification. The empirical results demonstrate that the renminbi non-deliverable forward (NDF) has been a driver of various Asian currency markets but that such co-movements exhibit a substantial degree of heterogeneity. As to the determinants of the magnitude of these co-movements, we test the relevance of potential factors and find that it is the degree of real and financial integration, in particular, that exerts the largest influence on volatility transmission.