Abstract
This paper aimed at analyzing the impact of the likely changes in rainfall on sorghum production under rain-fed mechanized farming system in Gadarif State of the Sudan. The study used monthly rainfall data for the period 1941-2014 and sorghum area, production and yield for the period 1970-2014. The data were analyzed by simple statistical and econometric regression methods. Generally, rainfall in Gadarif starts in May and ends by mid-October. The number of rainy days and volume (mm) of rain tended to decrease in June and peak up in July and August. The results indicated an increasing trend of rainfall mostly fallen during July and August during 1941-2014. The results also showed that dry rainfall years affected the productivity of sorghum reducing it by 4.9 kg/feddan/year and that floody rainfall years led to the decrease in the productivity by 11.3 kg/feddan/year, while it was decreasing by 3.39 kg/feddan/year in normal rainfall years. The study found a negative relationship between annual rainfall and crop production. Based on the results obtained, this study recommended concluded that identifying and implementing appropriate adaptation techniques to cope effects with the expected rainfall changes in the future.
Highlights
It is becoming ever more apparent in the scientific research that higher temperatures and changing precipitation levels due to climate change will depress crop yields in many countries.Throughout the coming decades (Yesuf et al 2008)
Climate change and variability phenomena under investigation in Sudan indicated that rainfall has been moving southwards, with recurrent droughts and flooding cycles (UNFCCC,2007)
They were able to sustain sorghum crop production in the state.The volatility in climate change variables, namely rainfall and temperature, compelled crop producers to expand land area to compensate for fluctuations in sorghum yields
Summary
It is becoming ever more apparent in the scientific research that higher temperatures and changing precipitation levels due to climate change will depress crop yields in many countries.Throughout the coming decades (Yesuf et al 2008). According to projections by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007), rainfall variability and extreme climatic events such as droughts are expected to adversely affect agricultural production and food security (Christiansen et al 2007), with Boko et al (2007) predicting that yields from Africa’s rain fed farm production could decrease 50% by the year 2020 as a result. The fluctuation and distribution of rainfall during the season directly together with the droughts and floods incidents, are expected to affect the production of sorghum and subsequently the food security situation in the country (National Drought Mitigation Centre, 2010). Sorghum is the main staple food crop in Sudan accounting to 65% of the total consumption of cereals in Sudan (Osman, 1996). In other hand, (Mohamed, 2011) studied the impact of weather change on Sudanese cereal grains and cash crops such as sorghum and sesame reported a higher impact of rain on yields compared to increased temperatures (Figure 1)
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