Volatile States in International Politics

Abstract

AbstractVolatile States in International Politics recasts canonical, timeless debates on how states’ behaviors change. Conventionally, scholars explore changes that make states progressively more conflictual (escalation) or less conflictual (reconciliation) toward other states. Volatile States in International Politics shows the limits of this practice. It demonstrates that states’ behaviors are instead often volatile, twisting and turning between cooperation and conflict in a way that appears inconsistent to their counterparts. Since observers cannot accurately predict what volatile states will do next, volatility often stifles trust and ignites conflict. Leveraging statistical techniques and archival data in a probing analysis of rivals and allies since the end of World War II, this book rejects attempts at dismissing volatility as reflecting mercurial leaders or intractable issues. Instead, it explains, a state acts in a volatile manner when its clashing domestic interests leverage power to achieve their goals in the international arena. In showing states’ potential for inconsistent behaviors, this novel investigation of volatility reveals how classic international politics concepts such as “stability” and “instability” fail to capture the most dynamic changes in states’ behaviors. Through its compelling analysis of multiple data sources, the book questions some of the basic assumptions held by scholars of international politics on whether consistent behavior spurs peace. Thus, its findings lead us to re-examine what we think we know about trust, escalation, reputation, audience costs, and compliance. This book shows that when properly understood, states’ inconsistent behaviors can become less confusing for observers and thus, potentially, less dangerous.