Abstract
This article is devoted to the diagnosis of problems arising from risk management obligations under the safety management system implemented in civil organisations of certified air operators (carriers). Focus was on the use of quantitative methods in safety risk analysis. The idea of an approach to determine the probability of accidents and serious incidents based on the intensity of symptoms with lower consequences and risk factors as a function of time or number of performed air operations was proposed, based on Markov discrete processes [6,10-12,16]. The essence of this approach is explained by the mathematical model of Runway Excursion probability during landing operations. The concept of improvement of operators' cooperation in the exchange of information about safety indicators by profiling the organisation was presented. The last proposal concerns the construction of a comprehensive risk assessment indicator using a safety risk matrix.
Highlights
For organisations providing civil air transport services, the risk associated with ensuring the safety of air operations is a priority component of operational risk, as well as affecting market risk
Among the many difficulties accompanying the process of Safety Management System (SMS) implementation in air operators (AOs) management organisations, the problems related to the development of effective quantitative methods of safety risk assessment4 that meet the individual needs of these entities deserve attention
The use of stochastic process theory or more precisely discrete processes to determine the value of probabilities of aviation events with high consequences, is an idea resulting from the fact that in civil aviation organisations, safety indicators of intensity (SPIs) are used
Summary
For organisations providing civil air transport services, the risk associated with ensuring the safety of air operations is a priority component of operational risk, as well as affecting market risk (for example, given reputational risk). Among the many difficulties accompanying the process of SMS implementation in AOs management organisations, the problems related to the development of effective quantitative methods of safety risk assessment that meet the individual needs of these entities deserve attention. This problem was left for AOs to solve. The random nature of incidents and air crashes with an extremely low probability of occurrence creates a situation where the assessment of the testability of individual safety forecasts of a particular carrier is very limited in practice This does not allow for empirical verification of the author's safety risk analysis and evaluation concepts and may hamper the creativity of performers. The assessment of any new proposals in this area should be based on scientific achievements or a rational, careful benchmarking of solutions from other areas of risk management
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