VMT-Mix Modeling for Mobile Source Emissions Forecasting: Formulation and Empirical Application

Abstract

A fractional split model is proposed and implemented that predicts the vehicle miles traveled (VMT) mix on links as a function of the functional roadway classification of the link, the physical attributes of the link, the operating conditions on the link, and the attributes of the traffic analysis zone in which the link lies. The fractional split model is a useful formulation for VMT-mix analysis because it accommodates boundary values of fractional VMT in a vehicle class, is easy to estimate using commonly available econometric software, and is easy to apply in forecasting mode to predict the VMT mix on each link of a network. The empirical analysis applies the fraction split model structure to estimate a VMT-mix model for the Dallas–Fort Worth metropolitan region in Texas. The results of model evaluation also are presented.