Visualization Tool for Obsolescence Management: Reducing Supply Chain Risk for C5ISR Systems

Abstract

Obsolescence is a challenge for Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Cyber, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C5ISR) systems within the Army. These challenges include lower availability of components in the supply chain, schedule delays, and higher costs. Proactive obsolescence management in lieu of reactive obsolescence management is essential to assist with understanding and mitigating obsolescence challenges. This article presents a visualization tool for evaluating the risk of obsolescence to a system’s components. The tool was developed and deployed using the R statistical software program. The visualization tool focuses on the areas of component design life, procurement lead time, cost growth, and the number of manufacturers producing the component. These obsolescence properties are combined in the visualization tool to measure the level of obsolescence risk exposure from the supply availability of the components. The visualization tool was first demonstrated using simulations of 10 systems based on a mix of risk levels with respect to the obsolescence properties. The visualization tool allows a user to input component level data for their system and compare it with two reference systems: the best case when all variables are low risk (i.e., proactive) and the worst case when all variables are high risk (i.e., reactive). The reference systems are included to help practitioners quickly understand their systems level of obsolescence risk from the supply availability of the components. The visualization tool was then validated with publicly available data for a drone and a user study that demonstrated improved accuracy, duration, and confidence in assessing obsolescence risk.