Abstract
Access forecasting aims to predict the quality of transfer of maintenance technicians to/from vessels and the constituent offshore structures at the wind farm. This is highly dependent on sea state conditions as well as other environmental factors such as visibility. Typically, scheduling or dispatch decisions are made on the basis of deterministic forecasts of significant wave height, often coupled with service contracts where transfers are expected to be attempted below a threshold significant wave height. However, there is always uncertainty in a weather prediction which can be accounted for by probabilistic forecasts. The aim of this work is to explore visualisation ideas for transforming vessel specific access forecasts into an interpretable and intuitive decision-support tool. Three simple methods are proposed based on a score out of 10, classification of transfer conditions, and a threshold score. Methods for summarising access conditions for 2–5 days ahead are also developed. This new forecasting and visualisation capability has significant implications for marine coordinators and skippers who will be able to make better informed safety-critical decisions, with the potential for reductions in the cost-of-energy offshore.
Highlights
Access forecasting for offshore wind farm operations is critical to ensure safe transfer of maintenance technicians to and from turbines and to maximise turbine availability
Improving access can reduce the cost of operations and maintenance (O&M) as well as construction costs
WindEurope scheduling/dispatch decisions are made on the basis of single-valued forecasts of significant wave height, often coupled with service contracts where transfers are expected to be attempted below a threshold significant wave height
Summary
Access forecasting for offshore wind farm operations is critical to ensure safe transfer of maintenance technicians to and from turbines and to maximise turbine availability. Improving access can reduce the cost of operations and maintenance (O&M) as well as construction costs. Independent studies show that that improved access to the turbine could comfortably shave £15m from the operating costs of an offshore wind farm [2]. The pressure to achieve increased access to the turbine implies a greater number of marginal-weather crew transfers, which potentially carry a greater safety risk. Improved access is especially valuable to the industry as the offshore fleet ages and life extension initiatives kick in, necessitating many more crew transfers for inspection and to deal with increased failures in late life
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