Visual Sample Plan (VSP) Statistical Software as Related to the CTBTO?s On-Site Inspection Procedure

Abstract

In the event of a potential nuclear weapons test the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) is commissioned to conduct an on-site investigation (OSI) of the suspected test site in an effort to find confirmatory evidence of the nuclear test. The OSI activities include collecting air, surface soil, and underground samples to search for indications of a nuclear weapons test - these indicators include radionuclides and radioactive isotopes Ar and Xe. This report investigates the capability of the Visual Sample Plan (VSP) software to contribute to the sampling activities of the CTBTO during an OSI. VSP is a statistical sampling design software, constructed under data quality objectives, which has been adapted for environmental remediation and contamination detection problems for the EPA, US Army, DoD and DHS among others. This report provides discussion of a number of VSP sample designs, which may be pertinent to the work undertaken during an OSI. Examples and descriptions of such designs include hot spot sampling, combined random and judgment sampling, multiple increment sampling, radiological transect surveying, and a brief description of other potentially applicable sampling methods. Further, this work highlights a potential need for the use of statistically based sample designs in OSI activities. The use of such designs may enable canvassing a sample area without full sampling, provide a measure of confidence that radionuclides are not present, and allow investigators to refocus resources in other areas of concern.